Previous: Table of contents
The science
AMOC, short for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is the system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean. It is also known as the thermohaline circulation because it is driven by differences in temperature and salinity of the ocean waters. The Gulf Stream which keeps Northern Europe warm and cools the Eastern seaboard of Northern America is part of it.
With the pack ice melting due to global warming, the salinity of the Atlantic drops, and at some point AMOC will therefore stop flowing. This will lead to Siberian winters in Europe, and also increased aridity, which will drastically reduce crop yields. Large parts of Northern Europe may become uninhabitable.
The AMOC collapse will also lead to a more rapid and stronger rise in sea levels. The East Coast of the United States would be most affected by this, because warming waters, which expand and increase the sea level, would collect there instead of flowing northward. Warming coastal oceans would also result in more extreme heat waves and fuel more intense storms and rainfall. But AMOC is a part of a global system of circulation so the effects of its collapse will be global as well.
The most recent estimate for the collapse [1] is some time between 2037 and 2064, so urgent action is needed.
[1] “Probability Estimates of a 21st Century AMOC Collapse”, Emma J.V. Smolders, René M. van Westen, Henk A. Dijkstra, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2406.11738
Next: Chapter 1. Our travels take us further North